A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
