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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It commonly functions as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your squad in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the largest resurgence is handed the award. In reality, it fuels an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or simply the biggest surprise.

Yet the latest race is fundamentally unique. The pool of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference champions declining and recent also-rans improving together. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in this turbulent and fun year, he's competing with several other exceptional coaches.

This is how the ideal vote could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to conjure magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the level of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a ordinary season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this isn't a typical season!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee following his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, he trusted newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an early strong start, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still