Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
